* The projected revenue is $24,369,277. The university hopes to finish the year with a surplus of about $9,000. Projected revenues last year were $24,203,310. University officials say the 2010-11 financial statement should be released this month.

* University support in 2011-12 is expected to be $7,854,881. That's 32.2% of the budget. Last year, university support was expected to be $5,132,686 -- 21.2% of the budget.

* University support comes in a half-dozen different forms. For example, there something called "Equity Supplement." And there's "Financial Aid Augmentation." These aren't insignificant revenue streams -- each is six figures in size. But they're not the big ones.

* The big ones are "State Allocation Level-A Funding" and "IRA Fee." I think the former is general fund money dispensed at the discretion of Fresno State President John Welty. The latter is the instructionally-related activity fee paid by all students.

* In 2010-11, Level-A funding to athletics was $2,138,022. In 2011-12, Level-A funding is $3,161,060 -- a 47.8% increase.

* In 2010-11, IRA fee proceeds for athletics were $1,049,852. In 2011-12, IRA fee proceeds for athletics are $3,376,751 -- more than three times as much as the year before.

* The IRA fee was raised last spring, with $60 going to athletics. The increase went into effect this semester. Each student pays the IRA fee each semester. There are more than 20,000 students at Fresno State.

* Athletic Department officials for years have complained that Fresno State students don't pay their fair share to support Bulldog athletics. These officials noted that students at many of the other campuses in the UC and CSU systems pay a higher percentage of the athletic department budgets on their campuses than do Fresno State students.

* Things began to change in 2008 when Fresno State raised the IRA fee from $10 to $62 per semester. Of that $52 increase, $32 went to athletics. That increase came at the end of a controversial political process, one that included a non-binding student referendum in which students rejected the proposed increase by a nearly 2-to-1 margin. Voter turnout was very light. A campus committee with strong student participation then recommended a fee increase (though the amount was smaller than proposed in the referendum). Welty had the final say. He agreed with the committee.

* Fresno State did things differently last spring when another proposed IRA fee hike was floated. There was no non-binding student referendum. There was no student controversy with the media in attendance. The campus committee recommended a hike in the IRA fee. Welty agreed. Game, set, match.

* Let's circle back to that part of the budget called University Support. I want to give you one more piece of context. In 2010-11, when university support was $5.13 million, that included $620,000 from a revenue stream called "President's Commission - Annual General Fund Subsidy." I don't know what that revenue stream entails, but it sure sounds like a pot of money dispensed at the discretion of the university president. In the 2011-12 budget, university support does not include any money from the President's Commission.

* I mention this because a good case can be made that, if not for the dramatic jump in university support in 2011-12 -- a year, I might add, in which the university is certain to go through the same tough economic times as the rest of the nation -- Fresno State athletics would be insolvent.

* Look at the numbers. Projected revenues in 2011-12 go up only $166,000, barely enough to cover the bills. And the only reason revenues stay close to expenditures is because the university president decides to more than double the amount of money coming from the general fund and student fees. In 2010-11, the general fund and student fees contributed $3,187,874 to athletics. In 2011-12, the general fund and student fees contribute $6,537,811 to athletics. That a difference of $3,349,937.

* What would the 2011-12 Athletic Department budget look like without that extra $3,349,937 from the general fund and student fees? Well, you'd have an athletic budget with projected revenues of $21,019,340 and projected expenditures of $24,360,217. As Charles Dickens said in a slightly different way, that's a sure recipe for despair.

* Now, keep in mind that I'm talking about budgets -- which are estimates. But Paul Oliaro, the university's vice president for student affairs and chairman of the Fresno State Athletic Corporation, notes that athletic department's budget experts are very talented. They base their revenue and expense projections on past experience, he says. They also add a major dose of prudence, he adds. My point -- no budget projection is perfect, but Fresno State's budgets in recent years have been largely on target.

* So, why does Fresno State need big-time help from the general fund and student fees just to balance this year's books? Where is the money stream drying up?

* One place to look is projected gate revenue. Fresno State expects gate receipts to fall from a projected $7,594,456 in 2010-11 to $6,507,355 in 2011-12.

* Of course, football and men's basketball are the big revenue-producers at the ticket office. Football gate receipts are expected to fall from $5,743,367 in 2010-11 to $5,155,723 in 2011-12. There were seven home games last year, six this year. Much of that expected drop in gate receipts is in single-game ticket sales.

* Still, a 10% projected drop in football gate receipts is eye-opening. Yes, we're in a terrible recession. But Mississippi and Boise State are coming to Bulldog Stadium. And new quarterback Derek Carr figures to be an exciting presence on the field.

* The jawdropper, though, is the projected gate receipts at the Save Mart Center for the men's basketball team. In 2010-11, the men's hoop program was expected to bring in $1,450,363 at the gate for 19 homes games. That's $76,335 per game. In 2011-12, the program is expected to bring in $988,632 for 16 home games. That's $61,790 per game. In one year, Fresno State is projecting a 31.8% drop in overall men's basketball gate receipts and a per game drop in gate receipts of 19.1%.

* I can't recall the last time gate receipts for men's basketball were under $1 million. As recently as 2007-08, the gate receipts were $2,129,937 (and this was actual money at the box office, not a budget projection).

* Recession or not, I guarantee no one expected to spend more than $100 million for an on-campus arena only to have a full season's gate receipts for the men's basketball program total less than $1 million.

* The men's basketball program has a new coach -- Rodney Terry. I hear nothing but good things about him. I hope the Red Wavers give him and his players a chance.

* One other thing. Fresno State moves into the Mountain West Conference next fall. Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson says the average annual athletic budget in the conference is $38 million.