Don't count Boise State out of the BCS picture just yet.
Losses by USC and Miami on Saturday probably helped the Broncos in their quest for an at-large berth in a BCS bowl, regardless of how impressive TCU looked in routing Utah. Looking over the pool of candidates, I can't see how Boise State gets left out -- provided the Broncos finish undefeated.
Including the national championship game, there are 10 BCS spots available. Six of them go to the champions of the six major conferences (SEC, Pac-10, Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and Big East); the other four are up for grabs.
If TCU finishes undefeated, the Horned Frogs automatically get one. Another will most certainly go to the loser of the SEC championship, either Florida or Alabama. (The winner would face Texas for the national title, if form holds.)
That leaves two openings. Other than Boise State, the top candidates look to be either Penn State, Pittsburgh or Cincinnati (whoever loses their Dec. 5 showdown), LSU and maybe Oklahoma State and Iowa. USC and Miami were contenders for at-large bids heading into Saturday but both picked up their third losses.
No way the other conferences let three SEC teams make it, so forget about LSU. The Cincinnati-Pitt loser would have a strong case (especially a one-loss Bearcats team), but neither is likely to be ranked ahead of a Boise State team with zero losses. Penn State is a good story, but whom have the Nittany Lions beaten this season? Nobody. Oklahoma State and Iowa? Not much sizzle there.
Don't expect to see Boise State-TCU in a BCS bowl because that match up won't draw big ratings or please sponsors looking for a national audience. But if a bowl can place the Broncos against a traditional power (a la Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl), it might have something.
Just a thought for a Sunday afternoon ...
No conference can have 3 teams in the BCS by rule, which would eliminate LSU. Penn State may not have beaten anybody, but they are a Big-10 team and Boise was undefeated last year and watched a 2-loss Ohio State go to the BCS instead of them. Anybody ranked in the top 14 can go as long as it doesn't violate the 2 team per conference maximum rule.
Boise needs Texas to win the BIG-12 or they will take an at-large bid. The SEC and BIG-10 will get 2 each. TCU will take one being highest non-AQ.
That leaves the last bid between Boise and second highest from Big 12, ACC, Big East, PAC-10. Second place in the PAC-10 won't make it. OK State or Texas might do it from the Big 12 if OK State wins out or Texas loses the champ game. If GA Tech wins ACC, second there won't get a bid. If Pitt wins the Big East, Cincy might have a shot at a bid for an east coast bowl, but not likely for the Fiesta.
The odds of Boise going to the BCS are pretty good right now. Each thing they need to happen is for the favored team to win from here out. Or TCU to lose.
It sure is funny how things change over the years: back in the '70's when I played and then in the 80's when we were a much better team, the Nevada Wolfpack used to smoke Boise nearly every meeting...we can't touch them anymore and we're not half-bad, especially this season.
I really admire their program and believe that they can beat anybody - really - if given the chance. It kind of throws the big eastern and southern money teams on their ears and makes college football a lot more interesting.