If you look at the projections, and we are far enough along in the season now that projections aren't insanely optimistic, Mathews has a real shot at 2,000 yards and will lead the nation in rushing by 450 yards. That's just mind-numbing. It doesn't even make sense. I need to do some more research, but there just have not been many 2,000-yard rushers. Dayne. Tomlinson. Sanders. The list is short.

That should be enough to get him real Heisman consideration, but it of course will not. Many men have led the nation in rushing and not even been mentioned in the Heisman race. So we need to look at more. Right now, Mark Ingram seems to be the leading candidate as far as running backs go, and perhaps the leading candidate overall. That's no doubt based on his team being undefeated and highly ranked, which shouldn't be a consideration in the balloting for best player in the nation, unless you believe the best player just happens to be on the best team every year. But it is a consideration, apparently. It's just the way it is.

But Ingram as a front-runner and Mathews (we'll use Mathews as an example here) is also based on the notion that he plays superior competition, and that if the two switched teams, their statistics would probably be reversed as well. If you look at the defensive statistics, though, there are some pretty surprising numbers. Mathews has faced three of the Top 40 rush defenses in the nation, Boise State (#11), Wisconsin (#25) and Cincinnati (#38).

Ingram has faced only one Top 40 rush defense, which was #25 Tennessee*. You see, there are a lot of ideas in college football that aren't necessarily backed up by the numbers. Well what if you consider all the bad defenses Fresno State faces in the WAC? Good question. If you average their entire schedules so far, Fresno State's averages out to having faced the #74 ranked rush defense overall. Alabama, with their mighty SEC schedule included, has faced the #79 ranked rush defense, on average.

*That's not a typo. Tennessee and Wisconsin are tied at 25th, giving up 107.75 rushing yards per game.

What's more, those numbers won't really change much over the final four games. Alabama still has to play LSU (#35), Mississippi State (#70) and Auburn (#96). Fresno State plays Nevada (#34), Idaho (#75), Louisiana Tech (#99) and Illinois (#93). Each team plays one I-AA team, so I didn't consider those two games.

As we all know, statistics are a little like your crazy uncle who did some time, and always has a can't-miss investment idea. They sometimes bend the truth. Teams in a conference like the SEC obviously face a lot more running teams than those in the WAC, so their rankings will be skewed a little. I'm not ready to say that Utah State's run defense is just as good as Kentucky's, even though that's what the numbers are saying. Maybe the Aggies are just as good, I'm just not ready to go palm on the Bible for it.

I think those skewed rankings are more than compensated for by Mathews' better numbers. Again, they aren't even close. (Ingram's projections: 1,506 yards, 12 TDs. Mathews' projections: 1,974 yards, 17 TDs.) But you also have to consider that Mathews has now been held out of the fourth quarter of three different blowouts. He could easily have another 200 yards. He's averaging a yard per carry more than Ingram and two yards per carry more than another supposed Heisman candidate, Jacquizz Rogers of Oregon State.

Is this healthy? I'm not sure. People keep telling me he has absolutely no chance at winning, so it's silly to analyze it, which may be true, but I still don't think we should just ignore it. The Heisman should go to the best player in college football and I want someone to watch the film, look at the statistics and tell me who is better than Ryan Mathews. I want someone to tell me he wouldn't be a star in the SEC.

What a remarkable time to be able to watch Fresno State football. The Bulldogs basketball coaches just told me the other day how dazed they are by what Mathews is doing, how they can't read enough about him. A lot of people are supposedly worth the price of admission, but he really is. He should be selling out the stadium by himself.

None of that will win him the Heisman, but it would be nice to see him get authentic consideration. Frankly, I think if Ingram and Mathews could switch teams, the award would already be decided.