The Fantasy Buzz: Breaking the law of averages

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OK, so your star player has had some good weeks and some bad ones. You figure that's fine, as long as it all averages out.

Well, The Fantasy Buzz believes sometimes consistency is a better measure of fantasy worth -- even if the average of a lightly regarded player is a little bit less than the average of a star player.

Let's take a look at two quarterbacks:

Dan Orlovsky, Lions: Over the past three weeks Orlovsky -- yes, that QB who ran out of the end zone for a safety -- has posted steady outings of 12, 19 and 16 points for a three-week average of just under 16.

Brett Favre, Jets: The ol' man has a three-week average just over 9 after outings of 7, 4 and 17 points. But if you want to throw in the 45 he scored in the game prior to that, then Favre's four-week average is just over 18.

But ask yourself if you would rather have a good Favre half the time or a consistent Orlovsky all the time?

(I'LL DEFEND MY SUGGESTION OF ADDING ORLOVSKY IF YOU NEED QB HELP, BUT WATCHING HIM RUN OUT OF THE BACK OF THE END ZONE FOR THAT SAFETY AGAINST THE VIKINGS NEVER GETS OLD -- ESPECIALLY WITH "I RAN" BY FLOCK OF SEAGULLS PLAYING IN THIS CLIP.)

We're not worried about Detroit playing Chicago, nor the possible signing of Daunte Culpepper -- that actually might motivate Orlovsky. So we'll say it again, as we said the previous week, if you need a QB pick up Dan the Man, who still is owned in only 7% of CBS Sportsline leagues.

Re-writing the script

So, I have been soliciting advice from you, The Fantasy Buzz and Bee readers because, as you know, everyone's an expert when it comes to fantasy football.

Clinton Portis is my RB1, but I was wondering who should go at RB2 between Justin Fargas, Tim Hightower and Justin Fargas. I had Hightower in, then Steve Lloyd replied and said use Fargas and then Richard responded to that and said he'd rather go with Hightower or Williams ahead of Fargas.

I also had Eddie Royal vs. Hightower as a question for my Flex option. Royal was the choice for me and Lloyd, Richard said he'd go with Hightower.

Well, I got home after the fun drive to Los Banos, checked e-mails and realized an owner in my league is offering Calvin Johnson for running backs because he has Chiefs running back Larry Johnson who just can't seem to stay out of trouble.

So, I'm offering up Fargas and Williams for Calvin Johnson, who would be a WR1 on most teams but not mine because I have Lee Evans at WR1.

Johnson would be my WR2 and then either Steve Breaston or Eddie Royal as my flex depending on the matchup.

And, if I want to get a better back than Hightower later on, I can package either Breaston or Royal with Roy Williams.

Crazy, huh?

But hey, I'm 6-2 and have not hesitated to pull the trigger on trades and they've pretty much worked out so far.

Stay tuned to see if the fellow owner agrees to the trade.

Let us know how you feel. You might even see your comments in Sunday's edition of The Bee. Leave comments on this blog or e-mail sports@fresnobee.com.

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About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by Delton Lowery published on November 2, 2008 3:41 AM.

The Fantasy Buzz: You, the experts, disagree was the previous entry in this blog.

Another tough loss for 'Dogs is the next entry in this blog.

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