The conservative Lincoln Club just released poll results today that show the Fresno mayor's race as a draw. If that's true, Council Member Henry T. Perea has faded the past month while political newcomer Ashley Swearengin has surged.
Mike Der Manouel Jr., the head of the Lincoln Club, says the poll shows Perea and Swearengin with 20% each, with a big chunk of voters -- 31% -- still undecided. Perea had a big lead in most other polls, although those polls have recently shown the race tightening. In Swearengin's own poll, Perea leads her 23% to 20%.
The Lincoln Club has been running ads against Perea, even through Council Member Jerry Duncan is its candidate. Duncan hasn't moved, and is stuck at 9%, according to the Lincoln Club. That's about where other polls have put Duncan. Unless something chnages, Swearengin will probably be the Lincoln Club's candidate in the runoff election in November.
The Lincoln Club poll puts former Council Member Tom Boyajian at 8% and Deputy Mayor Jeff Eben at 7%. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%, according to Der Manouel.
If this poll is accurate, and I haven't seen the cross tabs to verify these numbers, the big question is where the undecided voters will go in the last few days of the June 3 election. They could still vault Duncan, Boyajian or Eben into second place. That's unlikely. The pattern seems set, and that would make it a Perea/Swearengin runoff.
That would mean fireworks in the fall.
Duncan is a far more qualified candidate than Ashley or Perea. He also has an established voter base of 10,000-13,000 votes. What does Henry Jr. have? He only beat Rich Caglia by 50 votes in 2002 when he peaked with 3,769 votes. Where does all this newfound popularity come from? Media Kingmakers who wish to promote the two candidates that are bought off by developers that support the local advertising. Without the 3 real estate sections in the Fresno Bee, it would surely go bankrupt. Channel 30 polls favor Harry Potter? I'm sure it has nothing to do with his wife having previously worked there. Duncan may not be ideal, or even all that likeable, but he's at least an established, experienced candidate who shows some amount of gumption.
Important point of clarification: The Lincoln Club supports Jerry Duncan and it is the Lincoln Club poll that says he only has 9%. The wasn't a Fresno Bee poll. It was done by a group supporting Duncan. If you have an issue with the Lincoln Club poll, you should take it up with Mike Der Manouel Jr.
I've got nothing against Duncan, although he's not my preferred candidate. But what's this nonsense about developers preferring Perea or Swearingen? According to Duncan's financial statement filed on 3/24/08, his campaign accepted $1,000 from Golden Gate Chapter, Associated Builders and Developers, $3,600 from Bonadelle Homes, Inc., and $2,000 from Richard Spencer (developer). And those are just the developers I recognized on the list. And no doubt there have been other developer contributions since then. So maybe this is one "Bee conspiracy theory" we can dispense with?
What a right good giggle.
Do you think that the reason so many folks are sitting on the sidelines waiting to decide is that most clever folks are waiting for the real contest? OR, is there hope that most can see clearly that a "DWARF" is a "DWARF" regradless to party?