Local Republicans wasted no time in claiming that Republican Scott Brown's victory in the Massachusetts Senate race showed that San Joaquin Valley Democrats Jim Costa of Fresno and Dennis Cardoza of Merced were vulnerable in their congressional re-election battles this year.

Michael Der Manouel Jr., chairman of the conservative Republican Lincoln Club of Fresno County, says that in the 2008 election, 91 House Democrats won their seats with less than 55% of the vote and therefore are vulnerable.

He then tries to lump Costa and Cardoza into that group. But in 2006 the Republicans didn't even field an opponent against Costa, and in 2008, Costa swamped Jim Lopez of Bakersfield, winning almost 75% of the vote. And Cardoza was unopposed in 2008.

"All of those seats are now in play," Der Manouel says.

Fat chance, experts say. The big reason is that all of California's congressional district lines are drawn in such a way that it is very unlikely any incumbents will lose.

Democrats in Costa's district enjoy a 17 percentage-point voter registration edge, and in Cardoza's district, it is 16 percentage points.

Still, Brown's stunning win is not totally irrelevant to California congressional politics, said John J. Pitney, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College in Southern California.

A year ago, Pitney said, Democrats were talking about going after some vulnerable Republican incumbents. Now, the Democrats will likely move in to a defensive mode.
Overall, it is shaping up to be a really good Republican year, but Pitney says "it does not mean the tsunami will breach the walls built by California redistricting."