Home prices are headed back up and 12-month appreciation in the Fresno area will reach 4.39% by next August, according to First American CoreLogic, which tracks mortgage and real estate data.

First American made that projection based on its analysis of year-over-year declines in Fresno - which are getting smaller.

Between June 2008 and June 2009, prices of houses, including distressed properties, fell 21.35% in Fresno. The decline was 18.5% between July 2008 and July 2009 and 15.5% from August to August, the company reported.


Whether all that is a recipe for sustained gains remains to be seen. First American said that prices nationally could continue to fall through March 2010 if foreclosures increase and if the $8,000 first-time home buyers credit is eliminated.

Legislators are signaling the tax credit will be extended, but foreclosures could still be an issue. Wayne Yamano, senior manager at John Burns Real Estate Consulting in Irvine, told me last week that he expects defaults to remain high through 2012 and prices in the Valley to still fall a bit more ("single digits, minuscule to what we've seen," he said) before heading back up.