Here are my predictions of how the voting will go.
Best motion picture of the year: A month ago, “The Social Network” looked strong but “The King’s Speech” has picked up momentum at the right time.
Performance by an actor in a leading role: Colin Firth will win as part of a big night for “The King’s Speech.” His biggest competition will be Jeff Bridges for his growling work in “True Grit.”
Performance by an actor in a supporting role: A win by Christian Bale in “The Fighter” is one of the safest bets. But, Geoffrey Rush’s work in “The King’s Speech” is worthy of an Oscar.
Performance by an actress in a leading role: Natalie Portman will dance all the way to the stage for her work in “Black Swan.”
Performance by an actress in a supporting role: This is the toughest of all the acting categories. Melissa Leo is the leading contender for “The Fighter” but it’s a strong field.
Achievement in directing: This will be one of those odd years where a film gets the best director Oscar, in this case going to Darren Aronofsky for “Black Swan,” but the movie doesn’t win best picture.
Best animated feature film of the year: Despite “How to Train Your Dragon” being the better film, “Toy Story 3″ will win.
Achievement in art direction: “Inception” will have to settle for technical honors.
Achievement in cinematography: The camera work in “Black Swan” goes from disjointed to magical but it all works.
Achievement in costume design: Disney can plan a tea party for “Alice in Wonderland” to celebrate a win.
Best documentary feature: The Joan Rivers documentary was better than all the nominees but isn’t in the running. That leaves the door open for “Exit Through the Gift Shop.”
Best documentary short subject: The Oscar goes to “Strangers No More.”
Achievement in film editing: “Black Swan” will narrowly beat out “127 Hours.”
Best foreign language film of the year: Mexico gets this year’s Oscar win with “Biutiful.”
Achievement in makeup: Never bet against Rick Baker so the winner will be “The Wolfman.”
Achievement in music written for motion pictures: Hans Zimmer’s work for “Inception” hits the right notes.
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song): After getting past Cher not being nominated, it looks like Randy Newman’s year again for the “Toy Story 3″ tune “We Belong Together.”
Best animated short film: Disney wins again with “Day & Night.”
Best live action short film: The Oscar goes to “God of Love.”
Achievement in sound editing: Another technical win for “Inception.’
Achievement in sound mixing: Ditto for “Inception.”
Achievement in visual effects: And again, “Inception.”
Adapted screenplay: Aaron Sorkin will win for “The Social Network.”
Original screenplay: The best Christopher Nolan can do is win this Oscar for his “Inception” script.